Summary: In this paper we investigate the sources of instability in credit and financial systems and the effect of credit linkages on the macroeconomic activity. By developing an agent-based model, we analyze the evolving dynamics of the economy as a complex, adaptive and interactive system, which allows us to explain some key events that occurred during the recent economic […]
Categories: Articles, Publications
Summary: Macroeconomists were completely surprised by the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Up until then they had concentrated on macroeconomics with a capital M: global imbalances, interest rates, monetary policy. Few foresaw the central role the housing market and mortgage securities would play in the crash. It is now universally recognized that real estate and housing bubbles played an important role in the most […]
Categories: Related Work
Summary: A model in which purposive agents self-organize into teams is demonstrated to closely reproduce empirical data on the population of U.S. firms. There are increasing returns within teams and agents move between teams or start new teams when it is in their self-interest. Nash equilibria of the team formation game exist but are unstable. Dynamics […]
Categories: Related Work
Summary: This report contains output from the integrated simulator under development in Work Package 8. This simulator combines the Macro Agent-Based Model reported in Deliverable 3.3 and the Financial Agent-Based Model reported in Deliverable 2.2. The runs discussed here were generated with the simulator whose algorithms are described in Deliverable 8.2 and whose interface is discussed […]
Categories: Deliverables
Summary: The goal of the integrated model described here is to provide a baseline which has the key elements of both the macro (real) economy and the financial system, and that makes it possible to study the interactions between the two.
Categories: Deliverables
Summary: This deliverable presents the current state of the Macroeconomic Agent Based Model (MABM) that constitutes the macro part of the integrated macro-financial model. The model represents the evolution of the previous “Towards Mark-II” model and presents two key characteristics. First, banks and the market for credit were removed as a full-fledged specification of financial markets and related agents is contained […]
Categories: Deliverables
Summary: The model described in this document forms the baseline Financial Agent Based Model and as such is formulated in very general terms. The tests reported in the documents: Test I: the stock market and Test II: the credit market, are based on simplifications/specific modelling choices of the baseline model presented here. Futher development of the model to incude a […]
Categories: Deliverables
Summary: This document describes a test plan to verify and validate the game developed in WP5. Specifically, we describe how we intend to test the game, starting from the functional tests of the different components, and ending with the user experience testing of the game. We start by outlining the relation of the integrated simulation and the game, then we provide […]
Categories: Deliverables
Summary: This deliverable is the first prototype of the Economic Simulator, an application with a graphical user interface that facilitates running the integrated macro and financial models developed in the project. This prototype implements the ‘Scenario analysis mode’ as specified in D6.1. In this mode, the application allows the user to select a model, specify input parameters for the model, run […]
Categories: Deliverables
Summary: The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means of laboratory experiments with human subjects. We find that a more aggressive monetary policy […]
Categories: Working Papers
